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February 2006. ::: Vol.57 No.01-02

    Tomislav Gelo

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF GAS DEMAND

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This paper analyzes econometric modelling of gas demand, monthly household gas demand, it defi nes function of total and average monthly gas demand of households as dependant variable, according to following independent variables: average month tempe-rature, household’s gas price and average salary. Energy and energy demand function are very important for functioning of the economy of every country and for Croatia as well. In the moment when importance of energy is raising more and more, it is interesting to see which factors infl uence the energy demand. It is also interesting to see importance of every single factor. With regression analysis author defi nes gas demand function. Conclusion is that gas demand primarily depends on average monthly air temperature and infl uences of other variables, while household’s gas price and average salary, are less important. Author concludes that gas demand is inelastic or les elastic on changes of household’s gas price and average salary. Also, econometric models with average gas demand are better and more accurate then models with total gas demand. With given model we can predict future gas demand according to the variation of independent model variable

econometric analysis; gas demand function; gas price; average salary; average month air temperature

Puni tekst (Hrvatski) Str. 80 - 96 (pdf, 465.44 KB)